The 95th annual Academy Awards air this Sunday night on ABC, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel.
It’s a battle of blockbusters vs. indie gems 鈥� and hopefully no one will slap anyone this year.
If you still need to catch up, here’s聽a
Which of your favorite movies have the best shot at winning? Are any upsets brewing?
Time for some official Oscar predictions 太子探花 Film Critic Jason Fraley:
Best Picture
Nominees: 鈥淎ll Quiet on the Western Front,鈥� 鈥淎vatar: The Way of Water,鈥� 鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin,鈥� 鈥淓lvis,鈥� 鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once,鈥� 鈥淭he Fabelmans,鈥� 鈥淭谩r,鈥� 鈥淭op Gun: Maverick,鈥� 鈥淭riangle of Sadness,鈥� 鈥淲omen Talking.鈥�
“Everything Everywhere All At Once” has won everything everywhere at DGA, PGA, SAG and WGA. There’s an outside chance that ranked preferential ballots could cause older members to pick a more traditional alternative like “The Fabelmans” or “Top Gun: Maverick” (Steven Spielberg thanked Tom Cruise for saving the industry), but “E.E.A.A.O.” is as close to a lock as it gets, providing a litmus test for just how bonkers Oscar is willing to go.
Prediction: “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Spoiler: “Top Gun: Maverick”
Best Director
Nominees: Martin McDonagh (鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin鈥�), Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once鈥�), Steven Spielberg (鈥淭he Fabelmans鈥�), Todd Field (鈥淭谩r鈥�), Ruben 脰stlund (鈥淭riangle of Sadness鈥�)
A lack of women is jarring with snubs for Gina Prince-Bythewood (“The Woman King”) and Charlotte Wells (“Aftersun”), the year’s best director. Without them, I’ll pick The Daniels, who won at DGA and could become just the third duo ever to win. I admire directors swinging for the fences, but I worry future filmmakers will learn the wrong lessons of quantity over quality. I’d love a Spielberg upset for his most personal film, “The Fabelmans.”
Prediction: The Daniels (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”)
Spoiler: Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
Best Actor
Nominees:聽Austin Butler (鈥淓lvis鈥�),聽Colin Farrell (鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin鈥�),聽Brendan Fraser (鈥淭he Whale鈥�),聽Paul Mescal (鈥淎ftersun鈥�),聽Bill Nighy (鈥淟iving鈥�)
Despite a terribly miscast Tom Hanks, Austin Butler embodied The King in “Elvis,” becoming a frontrunner champion at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) stepped on his blue-suede shoes by winning SAG, so now the race is all shook up. This one is too close to call, but I think Butler holds on like Rami Malek in “Bohemian Rhapsody,” which rode a Best Picture nomination like “Elvis,” unlike “The Whale.”
Prediction: Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
Spoiler: Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
Best Actress
Nominees:聽Cate Blanchett (鈥淭谩r鈥�),聽Ana de Armas (鈥淏londe鈥�),聽Andrea Riseborough (鈥淭o Leslie鈥�),聽Michelle Williams (鈥淭he Fabelmans鈥�),聽Michelle Yeoh (鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once鈥�)
Michelle Williams could have won her first Oscar if she slid over to Supporting Actress like Viola Davis in “Fences,” but Best Actress is too competitive. Cate Blanchett was the early frontrunner with countless critics circles, but she’s already won two Oscars for “The Aviator” and “Blue Jasmine,” causing a momentum shift to the overdue Michelle Yeoh, who just won at SAG for playing a dozen different versions of her same character over time.
Prediction: Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”)
Spoiler: Cate Blanchett (“Tar”)
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:聽Brendan Gleeson (鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin鈥�),聽Brian Tyree Henry (鈥淐auseway鈥�),聽Judd Hirsch (鈥淭he Fabelmans鈥�),聽Barry Keoghan (鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin鈥�),聽Ke Huy Quan (鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once鈥�)
The most feel-good story this award season has been watching the resurgence of Ke Huy Quan, who we all adored as Short Round in “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom” and Data in “The Goonies.” Like Yeoh, he impressively played countless versions of the same role, earning wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG. Barry Keoghan has gone viral for his heartbreaking scene, but co-star Brendan Gleeson will split the “Banshees” vote.
Prediction: Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”)
Spoiler: Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:聽Angela Bassett (鈥淏lack Panther: Wakanda Forever鈥�),聽Hong Chau (鈥淭he Whale鈥�),聽Kerry Condon (鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin鈥�),聽Jamie Lee Curtis (鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once鈥�),聽Stephanie Hsu (鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once鈥�)
After wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, Angela Bassett looked unstoppable as grieving Queen Ramonda, until SAG picked Jamie Lee Curtis for “E.E.A.A.O.” Both feel like make-up “career” Oscars for Tina Turner and Laurie Strode, which could cause a last-minute upset by BAFTA champ Kerry Condon. In the end, I think the Academy tries to fix its botched Chadwick Boseman tribute by picking聽Bassett as Rihanna sings “Lift Me Up” live.
Prediction: Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
Spoiler:聽Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Best聽Original Screenplay
Nominees: 鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin” (Martin McDonagh), 鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once” (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert), 鈥淭he Fabelmans” (Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner), 鈥淭谩r” (Todd Field), 鈥淭riangle of Sadness” (Ruben 脰stlund)
From a screenplay-structure standpoint, Tony Kushner, Todd Field and Ruben 脰stlund are hard to beat, but Academy voters often like to reward brash originality, which means this is a race between The Daniels and Martin McDonagh. If voters decide to “spread the wealth,” we could see a “Banshees” win for Original Screenplay just so “E.E.A.A.O.” doesn’t sweep every category. It’s that sparkling of a screenplay, even if the tone is not for everybody.
Prediction: The Daniels (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”)
Spoiler: Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: 鈥淎ll Quiet on the Western Front” (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell), 鈥淕lass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Rian Johnson), 鈥淟iving” (Kazuo Ishiguro), 鈥淭op Gun: Maverick” (Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig and Justin Marks), 鈥淲omen Talking” (Sarah Polley)
The year’s most accurate film title is “Women Talking,” as it is indeed an ensemble of women talking, but the film is about so much more. Sarah Polley’s dialogue-heavy treatise will likely be awarded Adapted Screenplay to offset the injustice of an all-male Best Director lineup. If I had to pick a spoiler it would be “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which won a record seven BAFTAs, but that overseas success doesn’t always translate across the pond.
Prediction: Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”)
Spoiler: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell)
Follow my live tweets @JFrayWTOP starting at 8 p.m. Sunday for the 95th annual Oscars.
