After the Kendrick Lamar beef, can Drake come back with ‘Iceman’?

NEW YORK (AP) 鈥� as the 鈥淚ceman.鈥� And the stakes couldn’t be higher.

His ninth studio album 鈥� and his first since his extravagant loss in a 鈥� arrives Friday.

The beef between two of hip-hop鈥檚 biggest stars erupted in the spring of 2024, with the pair trading a series of vitriolic tracks that culminated with Lamar鈥檚 release of 鈥淣ot Like Us.鈥� The hit song was a direct attack on Drake, spurring Drake鈥檚 against their shared label that was dismissed. Drake鈥檚 appeal of the dismissal is pending, but in hip-hop spaces, Lamar鈥檚 victory over Drake

The Canadian rapper is at a crossroads. He’s still one of the most popular artists on the planet, and a successful entrepreneur with businesses spanning music, fashion, sports, and beyond. But he hasn’t had a smash single in a few years.

In hip-hop, where reputation is central to cultural clout, where does he stand?

Drake after Lamar

鈥淭he Kendrick battle absolutely dethroned Drake. Up until then, he was considered the leader of the pack, insofar as sales and hit records,鈥� says Sowmya Krishnamurthy, author of 鈥淭he Blueprint: Inside the Business of Roc-A-Fella Records.鈥�

鈥淗e also just hasn鈥檛 been able to recover with a hit record. I often like to say all is forgiven with a hit,鈥� she said.

Since the feud began, Drake has had only a few modest successes: 鈥淣okia鈥� and 鈥淲hat Did I Miss?鈥� peaked at No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100.

Peter A. Berry, a music journalist with work in XXL and Complex, takes it a step further: 鈥淧eople have beefed in rap before and people have lost public rap battles. But the loss that Drake took to Kendrick Lamar on a national and global stage is probably the biggest loss any rapper has ever taken in a big rap conflict.鈥�

He points to 鈥淣ot Like Us鈥� taking home record and song of the year at the 2025 Grammys, a first for a rap diss track. The victory lap concluded with Lamar performing the chart-topper onstage

Not only did Drake lose the battle, but he was struck by his own weapons: 鈥淣ot Like Us鈥� is a rap song so catchy it bordered on pop, fueled by meme-able lyrics 鈥� the kind of thing Drake has long been known for. (See: 鈥淜iki, Do you love me?鈥� from 2018’s 鈥淚n My Feelings,鈥� or even 鈥淵OLO鈥� from 2011’s 鈥淭he Motto.鈥�)

And yet, he’s still one of the most popular artists of the 21st century. Just last month, Spotify named him in the history of their platform, globally, just behind Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny.

鈥淗e remains this kind of immutable pop culture force,鈥� says Berry, even though he hasn’t had a long-lasting, multiweek No. 1 hit since 2018’s 鈥淣ice for What,鈥� 鈥淕od’s Plan鈥� and 鈥淚n My Feelings.鈥�

鈥淒rake’s music hasn’t evolved,鈥� Krishnamurthy adds. The lack of innovation, she says, in addition to fractured, algorithmic listening habits has made Drake less successful than in years past.

His is largely considered a turning point, where the ubiquitous hits and critical praise slowed.

鈥淚t just feels very sort of scattered and disorganized. It鈥檚 almost like he鈥檚 throwing things at the wall and hoping for something to stick,鈥� says Krishnamurthy, analyzing Drake’s lack of huge singles.

That’s why 鈥淚ceman鈥� feels so pivotal. 鈥淟et鈥檚 say it doesn鈥檛 perform to certain standards. It will get harder and harder to see him as a viable artist,鈥� she said.

What does Drake need 鈥業ceman鈥� to accomplish?

Drake’s album rollout seems to reflect the pressure of the moment.

鈥淚ceman鈥� is no surprise release. He’s been teasing it for weeks, with livestreams and themed YouTube skits. He covered his favored courtside seats at Toronto鈥檚 Scotiabank Arena in ice and turned a parking lot in downtown Toronto into a massive ice block installation. Fans used blowtorches, sledgehammers and pickaxes to reveal the album鈥檚 release date.

鈥淒rake has been a genius-level marketer,鈥� says Matthew Ismael Ruiz, a culture critic. 鈥淗e鈥檚 masterful at commanding attention. The ice block was smart because it forced people to talk about it. It was a physical impediment to anyone in that community 鈥� and that instantly goes viral.鈥�

鈥淥f all the things he鈥檚 done in the last few years, this 鈥業ceman鈥� album rollout has been unambiguously great,鈥� says Berry. 鈥淚t鈥檚 reminding people that he can be kind of unpredictable.鈥�

But inventive promo can only do so much. Ultimately, Drake would benefit from a massive hit. 鈥淲e鈥檙e about to go into the summer. If he can come out with a song of the summer, I think that would be really great for him,鈥� says Krishnamurthy.

Reputationally, Ruiz believes the collaborations on 鈥淚ceman鈥� will be revealing 鈥� and that keeping the track list closely guarded could be telling. 鈥淭he features will be the best indication of his pull in the industry,鈥� he says 鈥� concrete proof of who supports him after the Lamar beef.

This could be his comeback album, Krishnamurthy says 鈥� and not just in terms of streams. 鈥淩eputation, culture, these are things that cannot be quantified,鈥� she says. 鈥淢aybe he does spectacular commercially and that is great, but that doesn鈥檛 mean that the music is good or has any lasting impact.鈥�

Because ultimately, 鈥淒rake is very concerned with his own mythology,鈥� says Berry.

Even if 鈥淚ceman鈥� goes No. 1, if it doesn’t stay there, if it doesn’t improve Drake’s reputation with hip-hop fans, if it isn’t met with acclaim 鈥� it may very well be a disappointment.

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