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Maryland voters have widely divergent opinions on the direction of the jurisdiction where they live 鈥� and those opinions are based to a large degree on the economic health of their home cities and counties.
A wide-ranging poll, conducted for Our Voice Maryland, was taken earlier this month to gauge voters鈥� opinions on a variety of topics. Rather than seeking public opinion on politicians and elections, the poll was designed to test the mood of the electorate and voters鈥� priorities 鈥� particularly in the state鈥檚 six largest jurisdictions.
The poll results suggest that the state electorate is nervous about the future and that opinions differ based on where the poll respondents live.
The online poll of 2,595 registered Maryland voters, was taken April 19-22 by Change Research, a California-based firm that specializes in reaching larger segments of the electorate than typical surveys do. It was conducted for Our Voice Maryland, a 501c4 organization that was actively supporting Democrats in Baltimore and Howard counties during last year鈥檚 county executive races. Earlier this year, Our Voice Maryland transitioned to become a policy/political research testing apparatus in the state.
The poll, designed by Democratic strategists Raymond Glendening and Brian Doory, who are leading Our Voice Maryland, will be the first of a series that the organization is planning to commission over the next several months. The current survey had a 2.3-point margin of error.
All of the poll results, which were based on 34 questions, were shared with Maryland Matters under the condition that only a minimum number of questions and answers could be made public. But a look at even a few of the questions was highly revealing.
The level of anxiety between voters in Baltimore City and those residing in some of Maryland鈥檚 wealthier counties was especially stark.
Asked whether conditions in the jurisdiction where they live are moving in the right direction or are off on the wrong track, just 2 percent of Baltimore City voters said things are on the right track, while 77 percent said they are moving in the wrong direction. Twenty-one percent answered 鈥渟omewhere in the middle.鈥�
By contrast, 33 percent of voters in Howard County said things were on the right track. Twenty-two percent said they were on the wrong track, and 44 percent said they were somewhere in the middle. The right track number was 30 percent in Montgomery County, 23 percent in Anne Arundel County, 19 percent in Baltimore County, and 13 percent in Prince George鈥檚 County.
The state鈥檚 five largest counties all have new executives, who were elected in November 2018 and took over a month later. Baltimore鈥檚 scandal-plagued mayor, Catherine E. Pugh (D), has been on a health-related leave of absence for several weeks, and the city has been led temporarily by City Council President Bernard C. 鈥淛ack鈥� Young (D).
Here are the full numbers for the right track/wrong track question:
Would you say that things in {County} are on the right track or off on the wrong track?
Balt听听 Balt
City听听 County听听 AA听听 Howard听听 Mont听听 PG听听 Statewide
2听听听听听 听听 17听 听 听 听 听23听 听 33听 听 听 听 听 听 30听 听 听 13听听听听 20听 听 听 听Right听
77听 听 听 听37听 听 听 听 听26听听听 22听 听 听 听 听 听 26听 听 听 27听 听 听32听 听 听 听Wrong听
21听听听听听听 47听 听 听 听 听50听听听 44听 听 听 听 听 听 44听 听 听 59听 听听听48听 听 听 听Middle
The voters鈥� responses corresponded almost directly to their sense of the health of the economy in the places they live, along with the relative economic security of their families.
Asked what the three most important issues facing their jurisdiction are, voters diverged dramatically. In Baltimore City, gun violence was cited by 65 percent of the voters. In Prince George鈥檚 County, education was mentioned by 57 percent. Traffic and roads topped the list in Montgomery and Anne Arundel counties, while in Howard and Baltimore counties, taxes topped the list. Education, traffic and taxes were bunched together in the statewide survey.
Here are the full numbers for the issues question:
What is the most important issue facing {County} today? Please pick no more than three.
Balt听听 Balt
City听听 County听听 AA听听 Howard听听 Mont听听 PG听听 Statewide
41 听听听听听听34 听听听听听听听听听31听 听22听 听 听 听 听 听26听 听 听 听57听 听 34听 听 听 听 Education听
15 听听听听听听40 听听听听听听听听听33听 听39听 听 听 听 听 听35听 听 听 听29听 听 32听 听 听 听 Taxes听
12 听听听听听听23 听听听听听听听听听40听 听31听 听 听 听 听 听43听 听 听 听36听 听 32听 听 听 听 Traffic
26听 听 听 听18听 听 听 听 听 12听 听16听 听 听 听 听 听21听 听 听 听28听 听 24听 听 Jobs/economy
12 听听听听听听20 听听听听听听听听听22 听听17听 听 听 听 听 听 20听 听 听 20听 听 20听听听听听听听 Healthcare
33 听听听听听听24 听听听听听听听听听22 听听16听 听 听 听 听 听 11听 听 听 21听 听 18听 听 听 听Public safety
15 听听听听听26听 听 听 听 听 听12 听听23听 听 听 听 听 听 12听 听 听 15听 听 18听 听 Govt. spending
65 听听听听听23听 听 听 听 听 听16听 听10听 听 听 听 听 听 11听 听 听 24听 听 18听 听 听 Gun听violence
21 听听听听听听听9听 听 听 听 听 听11 听听20听 听 听 听 听 听 28听 听 听 21听 听 18听听听听听听听 Housing
6 听听听听听听听17听 听 听 听 听 听25听 听15听 听 听 听 听 听 19听 听 听 听 7听 听 15听听听听听听听 Immigration
6 听听听听听听听13听 听 听 听 听 听19听 听20听 听 听 听 听 听 16听 听 听 听 6听 听 13听听听听听听听 Environment
10 听听听听听听9 听听听听听听听听听听6 听听听9 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听6听 听 听 听 8听 听 听 听8听听听听听听听 Equality
听7 听听听听听听听8 听听听听听听听听听听5 听听听9 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听13听 听 听 听 2听 听 听 听 7听听听听听听听 Transit
听1 听听听听听听听6 听听听听听听听听听听8 听听听10听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 6听 听 听 听 4 听听听听听听听6听 听 Energy听prices
听0 听听听听听听1 听听听听听听听听听听听1 听听听听听0听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 2听 听 听 听 1听 听 听 听 听1听听听听听听听 Tolls
听9 听听听听听听4听 听 听 听 听 听 听9 听听听12 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听5听 听 听 听 2 听听听听听听听听7听听听听听听听 Other
Meanwhile, a high percentage of voters is satisfied with the quality of public education in Howard and Montgomery counties, and reasonably satisfied in Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties. But that level of satisfaction drops precipitously in the state鈥檚 two majority-black jurisdictions, Baltimore City and Prince George鈥檚 County.
Here are the full numbers for the education question:
What grade would you give the public schools in {County}?
Balt听听 Balt
City听听 County听听 AA听听 Howard听听 Mont听听 PG听听 Statewide
0听 听 听 听 听3听 听 听 听 听 听 6 听听听听38听 听 听 听 听 听 18听 听 听 听1 听听听听听听9听 听 听 听 听 听 听 A听
5听 听 听 听 24听 听 听 听 听 41 听听听40听 听 听 听 听 听 46听 听 听 12 听听听30听 听 听 听 听 听 听 B听
19听 听 听 41听 听 听 听 听 29 听听听12听 听 听 听 听 听 22听 听 听 42 听听听30听 听 听 听 听 听 听 C
33听 听 听 16听 听 听 听 听 11 听听听听听2听 听 听 听 听 听 听 5听 听 听 26 听听听14听 听 听 听 听 听 听 D
32听 听 听 听 7听 听 听 听 听 听 5 听听听听听1听 听 听 听 听 听 听 2听 听 听 12 听听听听听8听 听 听 听 听 听 听 F
10听 听 听 听 9听 听 听 听 听 听 9 听听听听听7听 听 听 听 听 听 听 8听 听 听 听 7听 听 听 9听 听听听听听Incomplete
听5 听听听听听27 听听听听听听听听听听46 听听听78听 听 听 听 听 听 听64听 听 听13 听听听听40听听 Positive (A/B)
65 听听听听22 听听听听听听听听听听16 听听听听听3听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听7听 听 听 38听听 听21听 Negative (D/F)
-60 听听听听5听 听 听 听 听 听 30 听听75听 听 听 听 听 听 听 57听 听 听-25听 听19听 Net positive
