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If the last 60 years of Maryland political history offer any lessons, it鈥檚 that Republicans win statewide races when they run toward the middle.
Charles 鈥淢ac鈥� Mathias made the leap from the House of Representatives to the U.S. Senate in 1968 by playing up his moderate () views. Former Rep. Robert Ehrlich听听in 2002 by replicating the broad coalition that won him numerous elections in his working-class Baltimore County congressional district. And Larry Hogan focused like a laser on taxes and the economy 鈥斕�� to win the governor鈥檚 mansion eight years ago.
Del. Dan Cox (R-Frederick), who is running for governor this year against Wes Moore (D) and three others, appears to have flung the winning GOP playbook out the window, according to a broad spectrum of observers.
With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, Cox has made few efforts to reach beyond his base, leaving even fellow Republicans dumbstruck as to how he intends to overcome the built-in advantage that Democrats enjoy in Maryland due to their voter registration advantage.
In interviews, campaign appearances and debates, Cox pays lip service to issues like inflation, crime and housing affordability 鈥� priorities for many voters 鈥斕齜ut his policy proposals in these areas only nibble at the edges. His website devotes little space to them.
He appears far more animated when he is re-litigating the 2020 White House election, sparring with the state Board of Elections, or railing against 鈥渃ritical race theory,鈥� 鈥済ender indoctrination鈥� and 鈥減arental rights鈥� 鈥� issues that resonate strongly with right-wing voters but are unlikely to get him over the top against Moore.
Publicly, Cox expresses confidence that despite what polls and pundits say, he can win. Some of his most fervent supporters are hoping for a miracle.
In an interview, former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele offered an unsparing indictment of Cox鈥檚 failure to capitalize on his primary victory over the Hogan-endorsed center-right candidate, Kelly Schulz.听
鈥淗e鈥檚 out of politics after this,鈥� said Steele, who served as lieutenant governor under Ehrlich. The next logical move for Cox, who is closely aligned with Donald Trump, he said, will be to pursue the same opportunities sought out by many people in the former president鈥檚 orbit.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 he going to do? He鈥檚 going to find a space on a very conservative talk radio program and grift. That鈥檚 what they all do,鈥� Steele said. 鈥�(These) people aren鈥檛 serious. They鈥檙e not serious. This is all about, 鈥楬ow do I turn this s***-show of an act into money, into dollars for me? How do I make money?鈥欌��
鈥淚t鈥檚 bull,鈥� he added. 鈥淭o paraphrase Prince, this is what it sounds like when candidates can鈥檛 win.鈥�
Len Foxwell, former chief of staff to Comptroller Peter Franchot (D), Annapolis communications consultant and part-time communications professor at Johns Hopkins University, said Cox鈥檚 primary goal isn鈥檛 to succeed Hogan, it鈥檚 to 鈥渂uild a far-right brand that he can monetize after the election.鈥�
鈥淗e鈥檚 made no effort whatsoever to expand his political reach, broaden his coalition, or bring new constituencies under his tent,鈥� Foxwell said. 鈥淩ather, he seems content to double-down on his very narrow base of social and cultural warriors.鈥�
Foxwell said Cox鈥檚 鈥渁spirational model鈥� appears to be another Dan 鈥� Dan Bongino, the hard-charging former Secret Service agent who made a successful pivot to punditry following a pair of unsuccessful campaigns in Maryland.
Observers see other signs that Cox may be driven primarily by what comes next.
Unlike Ehrlich and Hogan, who chose Black running mates who could broaden their appeal in a diverse state, Cox selected Gordana Schifanelli, an attorney from the Eastern Shore best known for right-wing social media attacks. She did not appear with Cox the night he won the Republican primary and appears to have been a non-factor in the campaign.
Rather than take a victory lap after his resounding primary win, Cox laid low, which meant he was effectively defined by听听and听, whose rhetorical attacks were merciless.
Cox has failed to unite his own party, nor has he successfully courted key constituencies that often side with Republicans, like the state Chamber of Commerce, whose leader, Mary Kane, a former GOP nominee for lieutenant governor, . Cox鈥檚 fundraising has been anemic and his press operation sporadic. (Calls from reporters frequently go unanswered and journalists have to cobble together Cox鈥檚 appearances from his Facebook feed.)
During an interview on Bloomberg on Tuesday, Cox made numerous false claims during a disjointed appearance on the influential 鈥淏alance of Power鈥� program. He called Hillary Clinton 鈥渁n election denier,鈥� even though she conceded defeat within hours following her loss to Trump in 2016. He falsely said that Moore wants to shift $500 million from the Baltimore Police budget to social programs. And he referenced 鈥渕y economic plan鈥� to fight inflation, though his website lists no such plan.
Host David Westin was openly skeptical of many of Cox鈥檚 statements.
When Hogan ran for re-election against Democrat Ben Jealous in 2018, he pulled together a coalition of 鈥淒emocrats for Hogan鈥� to burnish his bipartisan bona fides. Gaithersburg Mayor Jud Ashman, one of the Hogan Democratic endorsers, said Cox鈥檚 strategy bears no resemblance to the governor鈥檚. He called Cox鈥檚 harping on the 2020 election 鈥渄isqualifying.鈥�
鈥淲hatever he鈥檚 doing 鈥� not to be too glib or anything 鈥� but it seems like a dead-man-walking situation,鈥� Ashman said. 鈥淚 have no idea is motivating him to make the moves that he鈥檚 making.鈥�
A Republican member of the General Assembly from a GOP stronghold said 鈥渘obody鈥� understands Cox鈥檚 approach to the race. 鈥淓verybody鈥檚 like, what鈥檚 he doing? We haven鈥檛 seen or heard from the guy, so everybody鈥檚 like 鈥榯his race is over, just let it go.鈥欌�� The officeholder spoke on the condition of anonymity to preserve their chances for re-election.
Steele鈥檚 criticism isn鈥檛 limited to Cox. He also blames his party for failing to take advantage of Hogan鈥檚 鈥渟uccessful鈥� two terms to mount a strong gubernatorial campaign and perhaps pick up a couple county executive and legislative seats in the process. 鈥淲e鈥檙e not in a position to do anything but get our asses kicked in two weeks,鈥� he said, his voice rising. Steele briefly considered running for governor himself in 2021 but opted against it.
While criticism of Cox is flowing freely 鈥� and predictions of a lopsided election result are the norm 鈥� pollster Mileah Kromer thinks he may not be wired to reach beyond his base. Nonetheless, she sees little chance of his strategy being successful.
鈥淭his is clearly not the path to winning a general election vote,鈥� she said. 鈥淭he problem is that his values 鈥� and the things that he cares about and talks about 鈥� just don鈥檛 match up with what the average voter in Maryland wants.鈥�
