NEW YORK (AP) 鈥� Ship traffic has picked up in the Strait of Hormuz since Iran and the U.S. signed an interim deal to end a war that constricted global oil supplies and fueled inflation, but questions surrounding control of the vital waterway and whether vessels will be charged tolls to cross it could interfere to forge a lasting peace.
Tehran and Washington clashed over the Strait of Hormuz again this past weekend. Citing Israel’s latest attacks on Lebanon, Iran declared that it . The U.S. was quick to contest that. Maritime tracking data showed that dozens of ships passed through on Saturday and Sunday, though than the daily average before the war.
President Donald Trump suggested the U.S. might impose its own tolls on strait crossings if a final deal with Iran was not reached during the countries鈥� 60-day negotiating period. Passage was free before the war, but Iran last month established a new governmental authority to collect money from ships and has said it still expects vessels to register with the .
No one country owns the Strait of Hormuz, which borders both Iran and Oman. Last week’s allowed Iran to manage the strait for now while holding discussions with Oman and six other Gulf states 鈥渢o define the future administration and maritime services鈥� of the waterway. Iran agreed not to charge transiting vessels tolls for 60 days.
Legal experts and maritime associations have that a toll regime would upend decades of international trade precedent involving the world’s waters. If the U.S. and Iran cement a final deal, analysts say it for the flow of oil, natural gas, fertilizer and other commodities to return to prewar levels.
Here’s a closer look at the status of the :
Ships are moving but not at the prewar pace
Data and analytics company Kpler said its tracking confirmed 131 ships traveled through the strait between Friday and Monday, including 39 crossings on Monday. In contrast, about 100 to 130 vessels a day made the journey before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, and Tehran responded with its own attacks and effective closure of the waterway.
As part of the provisional Iran-U.S. framework, Iran said it would conduct demining work within 30 days and remove 鈥渢echnical and military obstacles鈥� to shipping. Iran’s lead negotiator and parliament speaker, , told Iranian state media Monday that his country would manage the strait in accordance with international maritime law.
The main central route of the is still mined and remains closed. Ships have been using the smaller northern route, which goes through Iranian waters, and the southern route, which goes through Omani waters. But 鈥渃aution is still clear鈥� in the many vessels either sticking to Iran’s prescribed route or trying to conceal their positions and identities by keeping their transponders off, Kpler said.
Both Iran and US have threatened tolls
Early in the war, Iran threatened to attack ships that tried to use the Strait of Hormuz without its approval and in a pay-to-pass scheme that shipping analysts dubbed the 鈥渢ollbooth.鈥� Iran also demanded in early April the right to collect tolls as a precondition for relinquishing on the strait.
Although the Trump administration on the Persian Gulf Strait Authority late last month to oppose what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as Tehran’s attempt to extort global maritime trade, the president on Saturday suggested the U.S. could impose its own tolls for 鈥渟ervices rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East.鈥�
The administration has not provided details on how the U.S. would apply any charges on ships if talks with Iran do not yield a completed agreement. Shipping analysts have expressed surprise at how much control over the strait the inital agreement gave Iran.
鈥淎lmost all the power goes into Iran to determine the arrangements going forward in the future. This is what we really need clarity on,鈥� said Philip Belcher, marine director of Intertanko, a trade group for independent tanker owners, said Thursday.
Experts say tolls would violate maritime law
Collecting tolls in the strait could violate of international maritime trade: freedom of peaceful navigation. The concept was codified by the United Nations鈥� Convention on the Law of the Sea, which took effect in 1994.
The treaty provides ships the right of unimpeded 鈥渢ransit passage鈥� through more than 100 straits worldwide, including the Strait of Hormuz. It only applies to natural waterways, so authorities can charge fees for ships to traverse man-made waterways such as the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal.
Oman is among the more than 170 countries that have ratified the U.N. convention, but the U.S. and Iran are not. Maritime associations have argued that all nations remain subject to the treaty’s provisions.
James Kraska, a U.S. Naval War College professor of international maritime law, notes that the U.S. and Iran are both members of the International Maritime Organization, the U.N. agency that oversees safety and security measures in international shipping. Both countries also are parties to the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, a treaty that governs standards for building and operating ships.
In straits like Hormuz, fees can only be applied at established ports of entry or for services specifically requested by a ship, such as specialized navigation aid through hazardous areas, according to Kraska, who is also a visiting professor at Harvard Law School..
鈥淚f Iran wants to apply those to everybody, then it has to adjust the traffic separation scheme rules, and that can only be done through the member states of the International Maritime Organization,鈥� he said.
鈥淵ou can’t impose fees for a ship exercising its right of transit passage,鈥� Kraska added. 鈥淪o the bottom line is, no 鈥� fees in this context are just not lawful.鈥�
Countries sometimes have joined forces to share the costs of maintaining of a strait, he noted. For example, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore worked with the International Maritime Organization and later other countries to develop such an agreement for the , but it involved negotiated contributions from the states using the passage, not fees on individual ships.
Disruptions could continue for months ahead
Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated or deteriorated quickly over the course of the war. While the outlook for shipping has improved since the U.S. and Iran pledged to , 鈥渢here is a degree of nervousness around the situation,鈥� said Marcus Baker, the global head of marine, cargo and logistics at insurance brokerage and risk management company Marsh.
鈥淎s far as the insurance position is concerned, there鈥檚 a good deal of support for ship owners that are trying to move out鈥� during this period, but the interim deal between Iran and the U.S. does not include language for keeping the strait toll-free beyond the negotiating window, Baker said.
鈥淲e鈥檒l see what the next six weeks brings us,鈥� he said.
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