OMAHA, Neb. (AP) 鈥� 鈥淒o they still like Trump in Nebraska? I think so,鈥� the president said during a recent event in Washington.
Given that the state easily backed Republican three times and hasn’t supported a Democrat for the White House since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, the answer may seem obvious.
But in Nebraska鈥檚 largest city, it’s an open question and could decide one of the country鈥檚 most-watched congressional races. Retiring Rep. 鈥檚 open seat pits fellow Republican and Omaha City Councilmember against Democratic activist .
The district encompasses an increasingly Democratic-leaning Omaha metro area of 1 million-plus and its more conservative suburbs 鈥� famous for steaks and the Reuben sandwich’s birthplace, though New York disputes that.
It’s one of just eight districts nationwide that elected Republicans in House races while supporting Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris over Trump two years ago.
Harding and Powell have been making the rounds at parades and festivals where meat raffles offer oversized sausages as prizes. However, those on-the-ground appeals could be drowned out by Trump who, like most things in politics, has moved to shape November’s in .
The president is organizing a next month that will serve as much a two-day rally for him as a boon to party candidates nationwide. Trump is also frequently visiting tightly contested districts, despite his and the .
While Trump centers himself, Democrats are happy to oblige.
When Powell knocks on doors to talk to voters, she asks, 鈥淲hat鈥檚 keeping you up at night?鈥� On a sweaty Saturday afternoon, John Rosseter responded without hesitation. 鈥淲ell, Trump.鈥�
鈥淚 want to see the history books written years from now,鈥� said Rosseter, 67, who owns a carpentry business. 鈥淭hey won鈥檛 be pretty.鈥�
The 鈥楤lue Dot鈥� hasn’t helped Democratic House candidates
Nebraska splits its presidential electoral votes, and the 2nd Congressional District’s delegate has gone to Democrats three out of five times since 2008, making it a 鈥� 鈥� in an otherwise Republican red state. But a Democrat has won the House seat just once since 1994.
Harding plays up Trump’s primary endorsement, and House Speaker and Majority Leader campaigned for him. Harding said he has 鈥渢he full confidence of, not only the White House, but leadership in the Congress.鈥�
He has also tried to appeal to swing voters and says he knows the district better than does Powell, co-founder of Women Who Run Nebraska, which supports female candidates.
Two possible Democratic 2028 presidential candidates 鈥� ex-Transportation Secretary and , an ex-Chicago mayor who was President Barack Obama’s first White House chief of staff 鈥� have campaigned with Powell.
She talks about how have increased . Powell also points to Trump and his family’s as an example of 鈥渢he choices that they have made while people on the ground are struggling鈥� and she says that resonates with Republicans.
鈥淓ven the ones who aren鈥檛 necessarily anti-Trump,” Powell said, “understand the need for checks and balances.鈥�
Some Democrats want a ‘Blue Dot Wave’
Jason Brown and his wife, Ruth Huebner-Brown, caused a sensation in 2024 by spray painting about 50 reused lawn signs with blue dots and distributing them around Omaha’s Dundee neighborhood. The couple has since expanded to professionally produce signs promoting a 鈥淏lue Dot Wave.鈥�
Brown said the Republican-controlled Congress has capitulated on 鈥渆very Trump nominee, every Trump policy, all the way down to putting gilding gold on statues.鈥�
Supporters of Harding have countered with red 鈥淏rinker Dot” signs.
鈥淲e need to make sure that we keep this country on the track to being even better,鈥� Harding said.
Jack Hosking, the 90-year-old retired former head of a title insurance company, organizes a weekly coffee to discuss political and community issues. He estimated that about 70% of attendees are Trump voters and 鈥渕aybe even more so lately, because of the crap that the New York mayor started,鈥� referring to Zohran Mamdani’s efforts at pushing the Democratic Party to the left.
Both Powell and Harding have addressed Hosking’s group, though, and he predicted that as much as half will support the Democrat.
鈥淪he spoke well enough that, my sense is, a lot of them will cross over,” Hosking said, noting that when it came to campaigning, 鈥淏rinker鈥檚 not doing much.鈥�
The president seen as a base motivator
The Republican National Committee views Trump as a national asset, betting he can prevent complacency in a year without a presidential race, when enthusiasm for the party in power .
The committee rebranded its 鈥淵oung Guns鈥� program for key candidates to 鈥淢AGA Majority鈥� in deference to Trump’s 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥� movement, and many congressional candidates will be at the Dallas convention with Trump.
Others aren’t waiting that long.
Republican Reps. of New York and of Michigan, whom Democrats are aiming to unseat, both appeared with Trump during his rallies in their districts. When the president Macungie, Pennsylvania, in June, he joined Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, saying, 鈥淚鈥檓 here for him.鈥�
Trump also traveled to the Wisconsin district of Republican Rep. Derreck Van Orden, as have Cabinet members.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani, facing a reelection fight, appeared with Trump during an April event in Arizona. Two Iowa Republicans in what could be toss-up reelection contests, Reps Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, both were by Trump’s side when he outside Des Moines.
Bacon sometimes defied the White House in his final term. He criticized Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and tried to curb Trump鈥檚 ability to and was the only House Republican who opposed as the Gulf of America.
Mary Jane Truemper, who heads the Nebraska Republican Party, said Powell and the state’s Democrats have moved too far to the left. She called Harding 鈥渁 steady force鈥� and said the nominee is not as fond of picking high-profile fights the way Bacon sometimes was.
鈥淚 think he speaks to the moderate Democrats as well as the Republicans,鈥� said Truemper, who managed Bacon鈥檚 reelection campaign in 2018 and also worked for an unsuccessful primary challenger to him.
Even Powell said, 鈥淒on Bacon was a good representative of this district, and I think that there are a lot of people drawn to a pragmatic style of leadership in a state like ours.鈥� But that may not be enough this year.
鈥淧eople are worse off than they were before,鈥� Powell said.
A local race may expose a wider party divide among neighbors
In the Elmwood Park neighborhood, Andy Maxwell, a 58-year-old pediatrician, said he likes to find the middle ground in politics and his community. But he recalled that, after putting up a Biden sign in his yard in 2020, his neighbors erected a Trump one.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 like all the turmoil part of it,鈥� Maxwell said of politics nationally.
Nearby, 80-year-old Jerard Pearson called Democrats 鈥渇eckless,鈥� but said of Trump’s base supporters, 鈥淚鈥檝e always been curious about this one-third level of crazy out there, a third of the population.鈥� He is also no fan of a neighbor’s large 鈥淗arding for Congress鈥� sign.
Truemper said Harding appreciates Trump’s endorsement but Nebraskans like to be wooed “person-to-person, rather than a national entity coming in.”
鈥淚s that going to be the deciding factor?” she asked of Trump. “I don’t know.鈥�
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