originally appeared on
The Nationals had a choice: Stephen Strasburg or Anthony Rendon.
Two of their biggest stars hit free agency in 2019, only weeks after helping the club to its first World Series title. Strasburg, a three-time All-Star, took World Series MVP honors with a 1.98 ERA in six playoff appearances. Rendon had three top-10 NL MVP finishes to his name and posted a 1.003 OPS throughout the postseason with clutch hits in several elimination games.
Washington only had for one of them. Yet, a year and a half later, they鈥檝e gotten production from neither.
Rendon鈥檚 bat now belongs to the Los Angeles Angels, with whom he placed 10th in AL MVP voting last season. Strasburg is still in D.C. thanks to the seven-year, $245 million extension he signed that winter. However, he鈥檚 made just seven starts since, landing on the injured list three times with three different significant ailments.
鈥淗opefully, in the not-too-distant future, we get him back in the rotation,鈥� Nationals GM Mike Rizzo last week. 鈥淗e’ll be a huge lift for us and he’ll be a great deadline acquisition for us if we can get Stras back.鈥�
It鈥檚 easy to say the first 18 months of Strasburg鈥檚 extension have been a bust considering he hasn鈥檛 been able to stay on the field for more than two weeks at a time. It鈥檚 also easy to point to the Nationals鈥� shortcomings on offense over the last two years 鈥� particularly at third base 鈥� and say they should鈥檝e signed Rendon.
But as much as the Nationals鈥� offense would benefit from Rendon鈥檚 bat, their rotation needs a healthy Strasburg back too. Even with Max Scherzer putting on a clinic of how to pitch deep into your 30s, the Nationals have struggled to get consistency out of their starters.
Patrick Corbin and Jon Lester both sport ERAs that begin with five. Erick Fedde was showing signs of breaking out before landing on the COVID IL and suffering an oblique strain. If not for Joe Ross (five quality starts in last six outings) and Davey Martinez鈥檚 鈥渟ecret weapon鈥� Paolo Espino, the Nationals would probably be digging into their Double-A roster for innings.
Despite the lack of consistency, the Nationals actually rank third in the majors with a 3.26 starters ERA since June 1. While that鈥檚 an impressive run, they also have a FIP of 4.20 over that span. The difference of nearly a full run between their ERA and FIP represents the largest such disparity in baseball, suggesting pitchers such as Ross and Espino are in for some regression.
Meanwhile, the offense has made significant strides over the last month, posting a .766 OPS since the start of June that ranks second in the NL. The Nationals aren鈥檛 going to be a team that homers its way to wins on a consistent basis, but they just saw three members of their lineup named to the NL All-Star team over the weekend. There is potential in a lineup that includes Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell.
Rendon would provide a boost, sure 鈥� especially with Schwarber hitting the IL with a hamstring strain last week. But Rendon聽was placed on the IL himself Tuesday, the third time he’s been sidelined聽this season. He’s also聽on pace for the lowest OPS of his career (.712) with only six home runs in 58 games. Regardless, the Nationals have always touted themselves as a team built around its starters. They鈥檝e made it to the playoffs before with a blend of solid hitting and elite pitching.
At this point, it鈥檚 impossible to predict how well Strasburg will pitch when he does return. The right-hander has allowed 17 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings (5.74 ERA) when he has pitched over the last two years, with 15 walks and 23 strikeouts. But the Nationals enter play Tuesday only four games out of the NL East lead. If they have any hope of catching up to the New York Mets and making a deep playoff run, they’re聽going to need Strasburg at his best.
Washington is only two years into Strasburg鈥檚 deal. There鈥檚 still plenty of time for him to return to form just as there is for Rendon. The club tied its playoff hopes for the foreseeable future to Strasburg with that extension and it鈥檚 too early to make a verdict either way. Still, one thing is for certain: The Nationals still need Strasburg, and his ability to pitch at an All-Star level will be one of the biggest factors that determines just how far the 2021 Nationals can go.
