ONAWAY, Mich. (AP) 鈥� Tom and Diane Peterman tried to buy flood insurance when they moved to their retirement home on the shores of Black Lake 14 years ago but were told it wasn鈥檛 available. John Solum was told he wasn鈥檛 in a flood zone when his family bought a 1940s-era cabin there.
Then came this spring鈥檚 historic and devastating floods across northern Michigan 鈥� in some areas, for the first time anyone can remember 鈥� swamping homes, pushing and washing out roadways. Dozens of counties were under a state of emergency.
Black Lake was so high that floating ice broke apart decks and windows.
鈥淲e鈥檝e never seen anything like that. Never,鈥� said Solum, who experienced flooding often when he lived in Houston. Knee-high floodwater forced them to tear out flooring, drywall, furniture, bedding and appliances.
Across Michigan, thousands were left without financial protection after record April rains fell on top of record March snowfall. Worse, many had no idea they were at risk despite years of increasingly heavy precipitation.
Their experience exposes vulnerabilities across the country, experts say, because flood plain maps don鈥檛 cover all areas. What’s more, the federal government’s mapping method is arguably outdated and does not account for actual risks as climate change of more extreme weather.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency develops and updates maps that determine who’s in a flood plain and must buy insurance, and to help communities plan. But it hasn鈥檛 developed maps in many less-populated areas, including some Michigan counties that experienced unprecedented flooding.
Black Lake, for example, straddles two counties 鈥� Cheboygan, which has a 2012 FEMA flood plain map, and Presque Isle, where most areas have never been mapped. The longtime summer and retiree destination is ringed by small cabins and some larger homes.
Another issue: FEMA鈥檚 maps are based on risks of rivers, streams and other waterways overflowing their banks. But they don鈥檛 account for flooding caused strictly from increasingly heavy rainfall that overwhelms stormwater infrastructure in urban areas and inundates rural towns where there’s nowhere for the water to go.
First Street, a company that researches the financial implications of climate change, found more than twice the number of properties at significant flood risk nationwide after incorporating that rainfall data into its own models and by mapping the whole country, including smaller streams that FEMA does not.
That includes four times more properties in Michigan.
鈥淚 couldn鈥檛 believe it when we first started building our model how different we were from FEMA,鈥� said Jeremy Porter, chief economist at First Street, who says federal maps are 鈥渕issing a whole source of flooding.鈥�
FEMA uses that extra rainfall data to help set insurance rates, experts said. But it’s unclear whether it’s proceeding with an effort to incorporate it into flood plain mapping.
The General Accounting Office, a federal watchdog agency, raised concerns five years ago that FEMA鈥檚 flood hazard maps didn’t reflect the best available climate science or heavy rainfall.
FEMA declined an interview request, but said in a statement that 95% of the U.S. population lives in areas with maps, which are 鈥渟napshots in time.鈥� It did not respond to questions about whether this year鈥檚 flooding adds urgency to mapping less-populated areas or whether it’s updating its mapping methods.
Climate change sets the stage for devastating floods
Michigan experienced 鈥渢ruly a monumental flood鈥� that in many areas exceeded what is known as a 100-year flood, meaning it has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year, said Matthew Occhipinti, the state’s National Flood Insurance Program coordinator.
But it wasn鈥檛 a fluke, experts said.
A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture for longer periods, which can lead to heavy rain or snow when enough builds up. And this spring, an 鈥渆xtraordinarily warm鈥� Gulf of Mexico set the stage for both snow and rain in the upper Midwest, said Richard Rood, a University of Michigan climate scientist.
A massive March snowstorm dumped up to 2-4 feet (61-122 centimeters) across northern Michigan. Then April鈥檚 record rainfall created more runoff than waterways, dams and culverts could handle.
鈥淲e call these storms historic; that is only true compared to the past,鈥� said Rood, adding that Michigan and neighboring Wisconsin experienced their wettest March 1-April 15 period on record. 鈥淚 think it is more appropriate to consider it typical of the climate of the future.鈥�
That’s why it’s important to update flood maps and for communities to be prepared, experts said.
鈥淵ou should never be lulled into complacency that, 鈥極h geez we just had the big flood so we鈥檙e good for another 100 years or another 500 years,鈥欌�� said Chad Berginnis, executive director of the Association of State Floodplain Managers. 鈥淢other Nature does not obey statistical averages.鈥�
FEMA mapping progress is slow in rural areas
FEMA has been working to update existing flood plain maps 鈥� some that were decades old 鈥� but has made little progress creating new ones in rural areas where development could occur, despite a 2012 congressional mandate, Berginnis said.
The agency has historically prioritized places with the greatest population and risk, which makes sense due to budget constraints, Berginnis said, but also leaves about two-thirds of the country鈥檚 streams, rivers and coastlines unmapped. Some of those areas are unpopulated federal land that likely won’t be mapped.
His organization estimates it would cost $4 billion to $12 billion to fully map the country, but FEMA has never had the funding to do so, he said.
Flood plain managers worry the agency could fall even further behind due to significant under the Trump administration.
FEMA lost close to 20% of its total workforce in 2025, according to a General Accounting Office report. That includes about 25% of its permanent and most senior staff, said Christopher Currie, who audits FEMA for the GAO.
鈥淲e’re very concerned,鈥� said Currie, adding that FEMA was chronically understaffed even before Trump’s second term. Now it would have to divert resources from many programs, including mapping, to respond to multiple disasters.
Some communities don’t understand their risks
Getting accurate flood-risk information to communities is a challenge even beyond flood plain mapping.
Communities must participate in the National Flood Insurance Program before homeowners can buy policies underwritten by FEMA and sold by private companies. But many 鈥� including several hundred in Michigan, Occhipinti said 鈥� have never joined.
Communities can participate without a map. But experts say those that haven鈥檛 might never have experienced damaging floods or don鈥檛 understand the insurance program.
They also might not realize they have an elevated risk if they rely on FEMA鈥檚 National Risk Index, a separate tool from mapping. The index gives one score for a community鈥檚 overall risk of any type of natural disaster, and assumes there are no flood risks if the community doesn’t have a flood plain map, said Berginnis.
That means a community with a low score might actually have elevated flood risks, he said, which 鈥済ives people the absolute wrong sense of security.鈥�
But even program participation doesn鈥檛 guarantee homeowners get accurate information.
Diane Peterman, who evacuated as her crawlspace filled with floodwater, said she tried buying insurance three times but was told she couldn鈥檛, even though her township participates in the National Flood Insurance Program.
鈥淭hey said, 鈥榊ou鈥檙e not in a flood zone鈥� and I said, 鈥楤ut I live on a lake,鈥欌�� said Peterman, who later learned that her neighbor had insurance.
In Michigan, an average policy costs about $1,000 for $250,000 in coverage, though that rate can vary widely based on factors such as home value and location, Occhipinti said. Some companies will sell private flood insurance, though it鈥檚 rare, he said.
Berginnis said homeowners and communities should seek information beyond what FEMA provides.
鈥淔EMA flood maps should always be the beginning of the journey and not the end,鈥� he said. 鈥淢aybe states and communities need to step up and lead a little bit more.鈥�
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